Thursday, January 31, 2008

Bulls and Bears

I think it was Ed Sekota who suggested this.

Do me a favor and click on the first chart. Now go to the other side of the room and see if you can tell which way this chart is going. To my view it's trending up. Now do the same thing for the last chart. It appears at least to me to be trending down. Now you can try to pick tops and bottoms all you want. As a matter of fact I used to try in my younger years :) cost me money. I don't play that fools game anymore. If the larger trend is up then I invest from the long side. If it's down then I invest from the short side. The gains on the long side will always have the potential to be greater than the short side so if I have a choice I will tend to look for bull markets. Notice the huge consolidation in gold over the last year and a half. Consolidations tend to result in rallies of a similar magnitude. The bigger the consolidation often the bigger the rally. I don't know about you but I don't see anything in either of those first two charts that makes me want to try and pick a top.