Friday, January 4, 2008
Tech a safe haven?
I keep seeing on CNBC analyst after analyst touting tech as a safe haven to hide from the credit crunch. Maybe these commentators think we can't calculate a %. I've got news for everyone tech is going to get beaten like a red headed step child if we continue down into the 4 year cycle low. Tech is already leading the market down. The S&P is currently down a little over 10% from the Oct. peak. The NDX is down over 12%. The S&P is still holding above the Nov. lows. Tech closed below the Nov. lows today. The S&P was down 2.4% today the NDX was down 4.3%. Yeah tech is the place to hide only if you want to get your head handed to you. If we go into a recession does anyone think that consumers are going to be spending food and gas money on AAPL trinkets? I seriously doubt it. Does anyone think that there's going to be a surge in new computer or software sales if the consumer can't make his mortgage & car payment? How about business upgrading to all the newest IT technology if sales are falling off a cliff. Hardly! Notice the Dow made new all time highs during this bull market (granted not inflation adjusted new highs). Even the S&P made a nominal new high. Tech didn't even come close. Where do they find these analysts? Even worse, who in the world believes this crap?