Friday, January 18, 2008

At the whim of the Yen

This wicked sell off has been mirrored by the explosive gain in the Yen. The last peak to peak rally tallied up 5%. This rally is only up 1%. I think there's still more to go yet before the Yen pulls back. That pullback will most likely correspond to another bear market rally. I doubt this bear market will halt until the Fed convinces the BOJ to devalue their currency and support the dollar again. Back in July the BOJ changed policy to a strong Yen in an attempt to control spiking inflation. That has had a negative effect on both the Nikkei and the rest of the global markets. Have no fear though at some point public outcry will force the BOJ to reverse policy back to inflation from their current sensible one to protect their currency. Sadly if they could resist this demand to inflate they would emerge from the recession much stronger. Instead they will end up prolonging the pain and making it much worse in the long run.