Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Year's ending in 7 can be rough.

Years ending in 6 and 7 have tended to be topping years in the market. 7 of the largest 15 declines in market history topped in years ending in 6 or 7. The long term trend is clearly broken. Markets can easily drop 30-40% when discounting a recession. A 30% decline would take the S&P back to the 04 lows. Considering that the market really didn't appreciate that much in inflation adjusted terms and a 30% decline would clearly suggest that we are in fact in a long term secular bear market. So far this is playing out almost exactly like the 66-82 bear market. We should now have several years of sharp moves up and down as the Fed continues to try and inflate away all the troubles but in fact just pushes inflation higher and higher. The 70's stagflation scenario is playing out right on cue. Does anyone remember where the money was made in the 66-82 bear market? That's right commodities. Specifically gold and silver should outperform as they have underperformed during the first phase of the bull.