Sunday, February 3, 2008

Monthly chart

Despite the latest rally the monthly charts are showing a deteriorating picture. The 12 month moving average is now turning down. Something that hasn’t happened during this bull market. I would like to se a test of that moving average and failure before adding to any shorts. In the last 28 years any time Jan. has been a down month there has always been lower lows to follow later in the spring or summer. At this time I don’t think we’ve put in the final 4 year cycle low. I do think we most likely still have more upside to this rally though before the bear returns to finish his work. The COT’s showed a large increase in longs which would also suggest that there may be more upside yet to come.