Saturday, February 23, 2008
I've been watching the charts of the cubes. I've noticed that the price pattern over the last month has been much weaker than the rest of the market. This is starting to look like a midpoint consolidation in a larger technical rule #1 move. Moving to the weekly chart we see the pennant pattern forming. Again these typically form about half way through a move. Also notice that the NDX didn't close below the 07 seasonal cycle low like the rest of the market. I suspect it eventually will, it's just a matter of time. The first half of the year has been a weak time for tech. We can see on the 5 year chart that the Jan. lows were never the final lows for any of the preceding 5 years of this bull. This has actually been the case for the last 7 years. Now that we are in a bear market I really doubt that the Jan. lows are going to hold on the tech stocks during a seasonally bad time of year, during a slowing economy and one that likely is already in a recession.