Yesterday something happened that doesn't bode well for the market. When the market gapped down through the trend line it was a signal that something fundamental had changed in the market. The obvious answer is the ISM report made it clear to everyone that we are in a recession. Here's the next thing that has me worried. It seems the media pundits have come the full spectrum from no way we are going to have a recession Goldilocks is alive and well. Then it progressed to only a very slim chance of a recession. Then: well maybe a 50/50 chance. Now it's: we are probably going to have a recession with the caveat that it will be mild. That caveat has me worried. Investors have been in denial the whole way. In secular bear markets recessions tend to be rather nasty. I don't know how many are old enough to remember but we had multiple recessions during the last secular bear market from 66-82. Most of them were not pleasant. The markets inability to rally today after yesterday's 90% down volume day also doesn't bode well.
2 months ago