At the moment I'm watching the pennant forming in the Yen. If this breaks to the upside it's going to put a lot of pressure on the markets as the carry trades begin to unwind again. If it breaks to the downside then there's probably a good chance the Jan. lows will hold. Usually these little triangle consolidations form about half way through a move which doesn't bode well for the market. The last explosive rally spawned the waterfall decline in the global markets. I suspect that another such rally would have similar effects. So far we've seen 200 basis points of cuts from the Fed with no effect. You have to wonder at what point do they finally figure out that you can't cure inflation with more inflation. Granted we are going to experience deflation if the economy slips into recession. The problem is that when we emerge from that recession we will have put into place all the ingredients for soaring inflation again which will most likely have the same effect next time that it did this time. That being spiking energy prices and constrained economic growth. The vicious cycle of stagflation then emerges. By trying to save the economy before the elections the Fed just guarantees that the problem gets bigger and bigger.
2 months ago