Friday, August 21, 2009

Scare you out or wear you out

Before this C wave can break the $1000 barrier it needs to shed as many riders as possible. I've been saying for a while that that would happen either by gold scaring out investors or wearing them out.

In June it started to become apparent that we were probably going to see a large triangle consolidation thru the normal summer doldrums and so far that's what has played out.

It looks like gold has chosen the wear you out path. Volume has diminished to a trickle as impatient investors have given up on gold. And that's exactly what we need to see for the C wave to break through the triangle and ultimately through $1000.

I can tell you right now what is going to happen. Gold is going to get overbought. It will probably already be overbought when it breaks through $1000. Investors are going to start losing their position based on oscillators.

In a huge secular bull market and especially in a C wave advance that's starting to accelerate you will be much better off if you just take the oscillators off your charts. They are going to be your worst enemy.

We could and probably will see at least a 100% advance from the bottom of the B wave to the top of this C wave advance.

At some point gold is going to decouple from the dollar. Investors who insist on adhering to this inverse relationship are going to get left behind. Now I don't know whether that will occur with this leg or a later one but it will happen at some point in this bull.

Old Turkey still has the best game plan for investing in the gold bull.