Tuesday, August 11, 2009


We have quite the quandary developing. Everything from Dow Theory to the Coppock curve to the cross of the 50 day EMA above the 200 EMA is suggesting that we've entered a new cyclical bull market (within the context of a much larger secular bear market).

However that means that March would either have marked the single longest 4 year cycle in history at almost 7 years or we just saw a one year 4 year cycle. Neither one of those has very high odds of occurring since neither one of them has ever occurred.

Now you see why I have no desire to trade this secular bear market. This thing is going to throw every curve ball it can at investors. Any one who can make money in that kind of environment is just plain lucky. And counting on luck probably isn't a very dependable way to make money.

So the question is, did we just see the longest 4 year cycle in history and the trend is now up, or did the 4 year cycle bottom in Jan./Mar. of 08 and this is the single greatest, most deceptive bear market rally ever?