Monday, August 31, 2009

Bernanke's Achilles Heel

Every time the price of oil has spike at least 100% within a year it has led to a recession. The jump to $147 was the straw that broke the economy's back last year.

Bernanke's attempt to print our way out of this problem has again spiked the price of oil. This time it's happening with official unemployment over 9% and unofficial employment over 15%. Is that really what we want in a global economy that's struggling?

Eventually this is going to push the economy back into decline despite the Fed's attempt to artificially stimulate by flooding the world with more liquidity.

The question is only a matter of timing. Was $75 high enough to start the process or will the momentum created by printing several trillion dollars continue to carry us higher for a little while longer? Either way I doubt this cyclical bull market will last anywhere near as long as the last one. Probably a year or less if I had to guess.