Sunday, August 2, 2009

cyclical bull?

If we are entering another cyclical bull market within the context of a secular bear, similar to what we saw from 02 to 07, then I would not look for the leaders of the last bull to lead this one. They almost never do. It's obvious from the first chart that tech didn't lead the last bull and its not leading this one either (if we are starting another cyclical bull).

During the last bull from 02-07 the leaders were energy, base metals and financials with a couple of gadget makers thrown in.

That bull was based on the fundamental underpinnings of rising emerging markets, supply constraints in the energy & base metal sectors and a massive credit bubble that fueled the financial sector.

None of those fundamentals are now in play. This cyclical bull, if it does take hold, will be built on an explosion in the global monetary base.

The one sector that stands to benefit the most from that fundamental fact is the precious metals sector. However there is another sector that appears to be leading already right along with the PM's.


I've speculated for some time now that when the next real secular bull market does start it will be based an advances in biotech. Perhaps biotech is just starting to position for it's role as the new technology of the 21st century.

Before we get too excited about biotech we need to get through this secular bear market first. That won't happen till we see true bear market bottom conditions. That means P/E's in the single digits and dividends on par with P/E's. It means the public turning completely against stocks. It means CNBC will probably be off the air. It means a Dow:gold ratio of 1 or lower. Until we see those conditions then stocks still haven't gotten cheap enough to represent true long term value.

In the long run that's how a secular bull market is born, by stocks reaching levels that represent incredible values.