Friday, August 28, 2009

Keep it simple

It seems like everyone has been trying to pick a top in the market since the S&P reached 875. I've seen an endless parade of reasons for why the market is topping, most of them technical in nature. Which kind of backs up my point that technical analysis alone really doesn't give one a long term edge.

At some point the market will top out and I expect we will see the usual chest beating about how this or that method correctly spotted the top...probably after missing the top multiple times.

Perhaps a simple approach might be a better plan of action.

The S&P is holding above it's trend line and the 200 DMA is rising. Until we see a break of that trend the direction is clearly up and a rising 200 DMA would suggest we are now dealing with a cyclical bull market (within a longer term secular bear market).

Even when the market does break the trend line the odds are good that there is going to be a test of the highs (as in a 1-2-3 reversal) so there's no call for trying to pick a top at this time unless one is trying to day trade intraday swings (good luck in this volatile market).

The dollar on the other hand is declining and below it's longer term trend line. The 200 DMA is falling. That suggests that the long term secular bear market is again in force.

Many analysts and bloggers can be very convincing with their reasoning, but let's not forget the fact that no one can see the future and yesterdays market direction really has no bearing on tomorrows (one really can't determine the future by looking at the past).