Saturday, May 12, 2007

Runaway Moves

During a runaway move like we experienced from July of last year till Feb 27, notice that all the minor corrections were roughly the same size, about 30 points. We appear to be continuing that move. Again so far the minor corrections are uniform in size about 25-30 points. We want to watch for a correction that exceeds this size by say 20%. Once that happens the odds are good that the trend has changed. However notice how the angle of assent has steepened. We are now starting what looks like a parabolic run north. This is the kind of market action that will bring in the public. I think Feb. 27th was the last serious correction for this bull market. At this time as long as this runaway move continues I have a feeling it won't be long till the public starts to pile in. At the moment I'm hearing and reading quite a bit of negative commentary about how the market needs to take a break. This is not what you hear at market tops. As long as I'm hearing this kind of talk on CNBC I'll know the rally is still intact. Soon though I suspect we will start to hear more and more reasons why this time is different and because of such and such reasons this market is only just getting started. This will be pure BS. This is human nature at market tops. Greed and hope take control and we invent reasons for and why our good luck will continue indefinitely. Does anyone remember all the crazy excuses for why the real estate market was not a bubble and why we had reached a permanently high level that would perhaps level off or slow down but would never in a million years go down. Well if I'm not mistaken real estate is going down. Like I said pure BS. So lets make some money on the way up but lets not lose sight of what is really happening here. Human emotions are starting to over ride common sense.