Wednesday, May 23, 2007

One reversal day does not a bear make!

Its happening again. As soon as we get a small pullback in the market everyone who said "I'll be going long as soon as we get a pullback" immediately throws their "plan" out the window and declares the bull run is over. Remember the commercial players don't trade on emotions like all the bears apparently do. The COT says that the big boys are looking to buy your shares. What better way to do it than to get a sharp little pullback to scare out all the weak hands and have them give up their shares at a cheaper price. If you can't control your emotions and stick to your "plan" it's going to be very hard to make money in the markets. Lets just summerize what happened today. The Dow is down 3 days in a row. Hasn't happened very often in this rally. The down days are very slight and on low volume. What happened the last time this senario played out? The Dow proceeded to gain 400 points. The Nas has had one down day after 3 up days. Works out to 75% up days. What have I been saying, the market is trading up 68% of the time. I think the market just decided to take a little profit this afternoon. Where is the catalyst for this market to fall? Does anyone seriously think that just because Greenspan, who's predictions are notoriously badly timed, says the Chinese market could fall that that is the catalyst to turn this market around. Now interest rates are rising, that might be a catalyst but if it is then the big boys don't seem too worried about it. If they aren't worried then I'm not worried.