Monday, May 14, 2007

Anatomy of a commercial long signal

3/20/07 4783/ .90 %
3/13/07 32718/ 1.16 %
3/6/07 36648 /3.96 %
2/27/07 45724/ 8.03 %
2/20/07 44756 /9.04 %
2/13/07 47003/ 9.94 %
2/5/07 52667 /10.03 %

I've extracted the pertinent data from the COT report from 2/5 to 3/20 during which time the commercials flipped to a long position. As you can see on Mar. 6 the combined net of both the large and e-mini contract showed a huge drop from 8.03% to 3.96%. This was signaling that something big was happening. 2 weeks later on Mar. 20 the large contract confirmed this move by dropping from -32718 to -4783, a huge one week move.