Thursday, May 24, 2007
After going over historical statistics it has become apparent to me that parabolic moves tend to produce large % gains. When the Nikkei went parabolic in 89 it produced a 44% gain. The last parabolic leg in 1966 over 100%. The last leg up in the 20's over 100%. The NASDAQ in 99 81%. The gold bull in 1980 over 100%. The gold leg last year 32%. The recent parabolic move in China 60% so far. Of course it is certainly debatable as to whether the US markets have entered a parabolic stage. However the angle of assent has increased radically. The markets are trading up about 70% of the time. Pullbacks have been very slight and usually only last a couple of days. The markers are certainly there. If this market is going to continue into a full fledged parabolic move then history would suggest that we should expect a rather large move.