Friday, January 29, 2010


The markets are entering what appears to be the second leg of a waterfall decline. I've noted in the past that the second leg of these kind of moves typically last 3-5 days. Yesterday was the first day of the breakdown out of the consolidation so if history is any indication we should see at least 2 more down days before this ends.

As strange as it sounds since I'm long, I want to see this move complete. I need to see this drop at least -8% peak to trough to be sure this is in fact the correction separating the second leg of the bull from the third.

I do expect at least three legs up in this bull market. Under similar conditions the Nikkei in the 90's managed at least 3 uplegs in each cyclical bull.

If this does continue it will confirm that this is in fact an intermediate degree correction. The initial thrust out of that kind of low once the selling pressure exhausts tends to be fairly explosive averaging +6% to +10%.

A further corrective move would also confirm this is the bottom of a very stretched intermediate cycle that started in July. That would open the door for another 10-15 weeks of higher prices before the next cycle low would be expected.

It would be much easier for the second stage of the C-wave to unfold if it doesn't have to fight a declining market.