Tuesday, January 5, 2010


I was hoping for a bigger correction in gold before the next leg up but the recent strength is suggesting the correction is probably over.

A larger correction would have generated the extreme pessimism that could drive the huge rally I'm expecting during the second phase of this C-wave. However we could generate the needed skepticism by having the dollar continue to rally. Just like everyone didn't believe the stock market could rally in the face of a higher dollar so everyone assumes that gold will necessarily fall as the dollar rallies.

I will say I'm a lot more confident that gold can decouple from the dollar than I am the stock market. Gold is in a secular bull market after all. That trumps any assumed currency correlation.

So far silver and miner valuations have not been corrected. Both are still way too cheap compared to the price of gold.

Before this C-wave comes to an end I expect the gold:XAU ratio to fall to or below 4.

I also expect the gold:silver ratio to spike down under 50, maybe even below 42.