Thursday, January 28, 2010


In bull markets when an asset gets stretched far above the mean one of two things happen. Either the asset goes through a period of consolidation to allow the 200 DMA to "catch up" or it corrects.

I consider the second phase of the secular bull in gold to have started with the C-wave advance in `06. We are now into the third C-wave of this stage of the bull.

Each one of these advances has followed this process. The first half of the C-wave takes gold and miners well above the mean. Then follows a period of consolidation or correction to work off that overbought condition followed by the second half of the C-wave which has ended in a large parabolic move both times (I expect this time will be no different).

In both cases so far gold has consolidated and the more volatile miners have corrected.

So far it appears that this time we are just following the same `ole pattern that every other C-wave has followed during the second stage of the gold bull market.