Saturday, January 23, 2010


I've been  been asked if I think the C-wave is over and possibly gold's D-wave has begun. Well as always anything is possible but the fact that we still haven't seen many of the typical conditions of a C-wave top makes me think this C-wave still has one more leg up to go.

For one the Dow:gold ratio never made a lower low at the December top.

This has happened at all but one other C-wave top. Since gold entered the second phase of its bull market in `06 both C-wave tops have moved the Dow:gold ratio to new lows.

In three of the last four C-wave tops speculation in the silver market has spiked the gold:silver ratio down to at least 50 oz. of silver to 1 oz. of gold.

You can see at the December peak the gold:silver ratio was a long way from 50. Sentiment obviously hadn't reached the fevered pitch that has marked most of the previous C-wave tops.

Finally the magnitude of this C-wave has been too mild so far.

Considering the size of the consolidation and the fact that the A-wave during this cycle has been the most powerful of the entire bull market, along with the B-wave being the weakest of the entire bull market, that suggests we should see one of the most powerful C-waves of the bull market. The last two C-waves managed a 275 and 309 point gain above the prior C-wave top respectively.

So far this C-wave has only taken gold 190 points above the prior C-wave top.

I think gold has one more leg up before this C-wave is finished.