Sunday, July 22, 2007

Here is your bear market.

This is for all the bears out there. I'm going to show you where the bear market is. A few days ago a subscriber asked me if I keep track of money supply. He was wondering if the Fed was printing money. I said heck I don't need to find money supply figures all I have to do is look at a chart of the US Dollar. At the end of 01 it became very apparent that the bubble had burst. Normally after a bubble of this magnitude bursts many bad things are going to happen. However the Fed had no intention of letting that happen without putting up a fight. So what did they do? Well obviously they started cranking up the printing press. As you can see they've been going pretty much full blast ever since. So far this bear has unfolded just about how most bear markets unfold. The first leg down usually lasts about 2 1/2 years. This one was a little long at 3 years. Then the counter trend rally over the last 2 years. We should be set up for another leg down now. Notice what happened though. As the Fed cranked up the money supply the stock market decline was halted and the recession in 01 was very mild. The Fed just decided to sacrifice the dollar to keep the economy rolling and to halt the blood letting in the markets. Low and behold its far. Like I've said many times before though all this excess money will eventually find its way into undervalued assets. That means commodities. This is one of the reasons we have $75 oil and almost $4.00 copper. This is why the nickel in a nickel is worth more than 5 cents. There is no free lunch in this world. Sooner or later the quick fix the fed instigated is going to come back to bite them in the ass. It's going to start IMO with an oil spike. That will set the stage for the first of probably several recessions. For now though the COT says keep riding the money train.