Sunday, July 8, 2007


I'm going to let you be privy to an argument that I've been having with myself all weekend. Whether or not I should trim my long position on a gap up at the open. I would put the position back on when the Q's filled the gap. Looking at the daily chart the 5 day RSI is getting very overbought and the Q's are up 6 out of the last 7 days. That alone is normally a sign for at least some kind of pullback. However I don't think this is a normal market. So I decided to take a look at the last abnormal market. Oct. 99 to Mar 00. I quickly noticed that overbought stayed overbought for a long time. Then I noticed there were 3 times where gaps never got filled and 4 times when it took a week or more to fill a gap. I don't think I could keep from chasing if it takes more than a week to fill the gap. I've decided that even though the market is ripe for at least a down day or two it's just not "safe" to be out of the market.