Thursday, July 12, 2007

Conversations With a Bear

Today I thought I would post a conversation I recently had with a subscriber.

You need a system that wins more times than it loses and wins bigger than the losses. As easy as that sounds I've only found 3 that do that (although I'm sure there are more). The COT, the VTO and the Bollinger band crash trade. If you are going to use leverage you NEVER EVER trade against the trend and the big money. If you are down to your last straw and have no choice but to take large risk then you buy deep in the money call options on the Q's. The big money is on your side and the overall trend is on your side. All intermediate rallies have lasted a minimum of 21 weeks and a maximum of 32 weeks so far in this bull. So you will have to buy at least the Dec. options. Shorting is what got you in this mess and if you keep doing it then shorting will eventually bankrupt you. Shorting is very dangerous and should only be done when you have all the odds in your favor. Right now you have none of the odds in your favor. You
need to stay away from the blogs. It's easy to listen to what the morons (and I do mean morons) are spouting especially if you already have a negative bias. But when you let these fools make your decisions for you then you lose money. How much have they cost you now? At what point do you quit listening to these idiots and make your own decisions or better yet let the big money make the decision for you. Sorry I'm so critical of the bears but these are obviously novice traders that have no idea what they're doing and they are posting these bearish opinions because they are trying to bolster their confidence that they are doing the right thing. No professional in the world tries to pick tops. It can't be done. The best you can do is get lucky once or twice in your life. Do you really want to bet your financial future on luck? If I catch you reading any more of that crap I'm going to come over and knock you in the head.
Capiche LOL

Basically I'm just trying to get the point across to this fella that he is letting his bearish bias be reinforced by frequenting the bearish blogs. He needs to get off there if he is ever going to make money in this bull.