Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Is that it?

I don't think so. Mainly because I think the dollar isn't done going down yet.

I'm looking for the dollar to perhaps test long term support at 80 before the current weekly and seasonal cycle bottoms. That should continue to support all markets for a while.

Keep in mind this will still be an artificial boost based on nothing more than Fed induced liquidity not on real productivity. Coincidentally the same thing that gave us the rally from 02 to 07.

I don't expect this time to have any better outcome except this rally will turn out to be nothing more than a short counter trend rally in an ongoing bear market. Let's face it, as much as Bernanke would like to go down this road again I think we've already shot our load with this strategy.