From the peak in 07 at $120 to the recent trough of $18 the BKX has lost roughly 85% of it's value. At Friday's low of $17.75 the BKX was stretched 66% below the 200 DMA. That's pretty extreme for any bear market.
During the first phase the BKX retraced 50% of it's fall before resuming the down trend.
I'm guessing we could now see something similar. A retracement to the $45 area wouldn't surprise me.
I think the market may be putting in a seasonal cycle low right now. For the last two years that low has come in March. It has been followed by a strong rally each time.
If the Banks can put in a nice bounce we might see the market manage to recover the 200 DMA before things turn sour again.
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