Tuesday, August 19, 2008

It's time to bounce

I think commodities are probably ready for a counter trend bounce. I'm using oil as an example because the parabolic move is more evident. The weekly oscillators are now oversold. This is the level were I think we can expect a rally. Bullish sentiment doesn't evaporate quickly, especially after the kind of run we just experienced. The commodity bulls are now thinking they have the buying opportunity of a lifetime. I believe they are going to be disappointed as I think this rally is eventually going to fail and roll over again.

That's not to say I won't take a trade here to catch the bounce, I am. I will not however expect that it's party time again and that oil is now going to $200. The world is facing deflation. If the stock market does roll over here it puts this 4 year cycle in jeopardy of repeating the 1930 cycle. That was also a very left translated cycle. In that scenario everything is going to get sucked down by the bear.

So for now I do think commodities are going to rally but I won't count on it being anything other than a counter trend rally as Mr. Market does his best to take the most money from the most participants...as usual.