Friday, August 15, 2008
The dollar premium is coming out of commodities
The Fed cut rates aggressively at the end of Jan. and commodities took off. Now the dollar has retraced almost all of that drop. The upshot is that almost all commodities are rapidly shedding their dollar premium. The only one still well above the late Jan. level is oil.
Now I don't know about anyone else but I have yet to see a gas station run out of gas. There's been no 70's style gas lines in Vegas. If we don't have a shortage it's kind of hard to explain the huge move up in the price of energy other than it was just a response to monetary devaluation.
I suspect oil will also shed all of the dollar premium before this decline is over.