Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Head & Shoulder Pattern

OK here's my pitiful attempt at a pattern analysis. It looks like we may be forming an inverse head & shoulders pattern. LOL Actually what I'm looking at is a potential 1-2-3 reversal with the big key reversal day and a very weak test of the lows. If the S&P can close above the reaction high then it will have completed the trend change back to the long side. Does this guarantee the market is going back up? Of course not there are no guarantees in the stock market but it does skew the odds a little more in favor of the bulls. Also yesterdays 90+% down volume day was the worst in 10 years. The last four times we saw anything similar in the last decade it has been followed by an average weekly gain of 4.9% and a monthly gain of 6.2%. 4 out of 4, that's pretty good odds. Combine that with the COT at historic long positions, insiders backing up the truck and short interest at record levels and those are the kind of odds I refuse to pass up.