Thursday, August 9, 2007

Anatomy of a Bear Market

What we're looking at is the bull bear cycle for the US dollar. Notice the three legs down. Most bear markets have at least three legs down some more. the Nikkei had multiple down legs. However applying this to the present situation we see the initial decline in the dollar lasted about 2 1/2 years. Sound familiar? Then we got the counter trend rally from the beginning to the end of 05. We are now in the process of the 2nd leg down which should take the dollar index to new lows. Actually it already has taken out the 05 lows. I suspect it will continue down much more even though the 2b reversal from last week may mean a bit of a bounce here. When this decline really starts to roll into new lows gold should move much higher to put it mildly. Again if gold can push past the old high of $880 then the average gain has been 140%. Patience is the word of the day for PM holders. Our time will come and probably sooner than later.