Saturday, June 2, 2007

Is it time for the market to change character?

Keep in mind that this is just a thought I've been toying with so I definitely wouldn't trade on what I'm about to say. For the last year the market has been in a runaway move to the upside seperated by the correction in Feb/Mar. The corrections have all been uniform. Roughly 25-30 points each. The rally out of the Mar. bottom has followed the same pattern so far. We are currently nearing an area where we have typically gotten one of these corrections. What I'm starting to wonder is that maybe this pattern is now too obvious to everyone. There is very heavy shorting in the Q's right now. Could the market be banking too heavily on a "normal" correction? If all of a sudden we don't get it and the market changes character and keeps rising here all of those shorts covering could spark a parabolic rise. Just something to think about if you are trying to time the corrections.