Sunday, June 3, 2007

A history of parabolic moves

Notice some striking similarities when markets start trading parabolic. They all seem to trade up roughly 68% of the time. The smallest gain was 25% for the Dow in 87. The largest was the Nasdaq and Copper at roughly 80%. The time span was 2 months for the metals to 5 months for the Nasdaq. The take away here is that these kind of moves produce big gains quickly. The S&P has been rising 68% of the time since the Mar. bottom and is now trading in a pattern similar to other parabolic moves. However it is only up 12.8% as of Fridays close. If it just matches the weakest rise, the Dow in 87, then we should at least double the gain so far. That implies another 175 points on the S&P. Keep in mind anything can happen. The pattern could abort next week. Just something to think about if you are contemplating shorting this market at these levels.