Tuesday, November 17, 2009


Yesterday the HUI traded right up to a major resistance level.

The last intermediate top also traded up to a major resistance level before topping and rolling over into an intermediate correction.

The dollar also looks like it's trying to bottom. This morning the dollar has again bounced back above the 75 level. It's tried several times to break through this level and failed.

The dollar traded up as high as 75.41 premarket forming a swing low that has the potential to mark an intermediate bottom.

I do think the dollar is going to make at least one more attempt to break through that level as I think the S&P is going to tag that 50% Fibonacci retracement level before correcting. Let's face it the only way the S&P makes it to 1120 is with a weaker dollar since this entire rally has been based on nothing more than a rising ocean of liquidity.

There are several signs I'm looking for to confirm an intermediate top in stocks and precious metals and so far we haven't seen them. Until we do stocks probably still have one more last gasp higher. Miners may be leading a bit and I have my doubts that the HUI is going to convincingly break through 480 before suffering an intermediate correction.

We'll probably have some idea by how severe the short term correction is. If it's fairly strong then the miners may not be able to bounce all the way back up to 480 as the S&P tags the 1120 level...probably later this week.