Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Runaway moves

The stock market is and has been in a runaway move since March with one brief pause in June and early July.

The last time we saw this kind of action was as the market came out of the 06 bottom. At the time there was great fear that the economy was slipping into recession. The Fed's response was to destroy the dollar by creating billions and billions of them at will.

That frantic printing spree spawned the runaway move in stocks from the summer of 06 till the China led crash in Feb. of 07. After that the inflationary effects of this monetary policy strictly limited further upside for the market, with the S&P only tacking on 100 more points before finally rolling over into the bear market.

You can see the Fed is at it again. Look at the last chart of the dollar since March. Ben is on a determined path to destroy the currency. So far his efforts have produced another runaway move in stocks. The only question is how long can it last before inflation cripples us again. I suspect not too much longer as we've already seen oil spike over 100%. (Always a economic killer).

Generally speaking when one of these runaway moves gets started one wants to take note of the average size of the corrections. Once any correction exceeds that average size by roughly 20% then the odds swing heavily in favor of that correction being something different, possibly the start of an intermediate trend change.

The reason I mentioned this isn't as a timing mechanism for trading stocks but because I think there's a good chance we could see one of these runaway moves in gold once the $1000 mark is taken out for good.

If we see a powerful surge higher in gold during the next few weeks one might want to consider the possibility of another runaway move and not sell too early. You definitely don't want to sell based on overbought levels or divergences. Notice how the large momentum divergences in 06 and recently have been worthless tools for timing this move.