Sunday, June 28, 2009

Point of maximum risk

During bull and bear markets the 50 week moving average has acted as strong support and resistance. During the bear from 2000-2002 the 50 rejected every major counter trend rally. Then during the cyclical bull from 2002-2007 the 50 supported every decline.

Now we are entrenched in the worst bear market since the depression and so far the 50 WMA is again playing its role as rally stopper.

Unless we have somehow entered another cyclical bull market (unlikely) then longs are now at the point of maximum risk.

I'm seeing many signs that this rally is probably over. Not the least of which is the 22 week cycle low is due by mid August or early September at the latest. Since most declines into a weekly cycle low last at least 1 1/2 months up to 3 months it's probably time for the decline to start. (Actually I think it probably already started on June 11th.)

I'm back home BTW. We left one day early as our fingers were just too sore to climb anymore. I came back to 105 degrees in Vegas. Sheez!