Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Never short a bull market

A lesson I learned a long time ago was never short a bull market. One never knows when the secular trend is going to resume. Often it will resume with an explosive move as dumb money shorts panic and cover.

Today has the that possibility for gold. Since this is only day 25 of the daily cycle, and that cycle can stretch to 28 days and not be out of the ordinary, it's very possible that gold put in a cycle low yesterday. It's also entirely possible that gold will rnow ally back up to test $1000.

Of course I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know what is going to transpire in the coming days. Just in case gold does rally here is why I have not been willing to sell my juniors or silver miners.

There is only one time when one could short gold and possibly have the odds in their favor. That would be at the start of a D wave decline. We are probably at least a year from that. Even then C waves usually end with some kind of parabolic spike so it can be tough to spot the start of a D wave.

Shorting a secular bull market is a great way to get your head handed to you. It's much easier to short a market that's already going down. That way you at least have the larger trend in your favor. Let's faced it trading against the odds is just gambling and if you want to gamble there are plenty of casinos out there that could certainly use your money.