Friday, December 19, 2008

Is the Dollar correction over?

I think yesterday's big reversal in the dollar likely marked the low for the T1 correction. You can find the technical rules on the lower right side of the blog.

A move back above 80 would be confirmation of sorts that the dollar is ready to resume it's longer term rally.

I'd have to say if the dollar can't drop even after the Fed has cut rates to zero that's quite the signal that the deflationary trend is very powerful.

I included the long term weekly chart so you could see that for the first time in 7 years the dollar has moved back above the 200 week moving average. That's a pretty good signal that the recent move wasn't just a counter trend rally. If it was it shouldn't have moved above this long term average. A move back above the 200 WMA would be further confirmation that the deflationary trend is still intact.

The rally in 05 was a counter trend rally and it was unable to penetrate the 200 WMA.

If the longer term trend is reasserting then commodities are going to come under pressure again.

I think it is probably significant that only gold benefited from the recent decline in the dollar. We should have seen a bounce in all commodities. It never materialized though. That probably says a lot about the supply and demand fundamentals right now.