Thursday, December 18, 2008

Gold back in bear market mode

It appears that the counter trend rally in gold has about run it's course. Yesterday GLD was rejected by the long term trendline. Today it has moved back below the 200 DMA.

Looking at the long term chart we can see the 200 DMA has rolled over. The 50 DMA is below the 200 and declining steeply. That looks like a bear market to me.

I trimmed my core position in metals even further yesterday.

There is a T1 pattern that may be playing out in the dollar which would suggest that the decline there may be about over. If the dollar is ready to resume it's upward trend then gold is probably ready to resume the longer term down trend.