Thursday, November 20, 2008

Reaching levels only seen once in history

At yesterdays close the S&P was 36% below the 200 DMA. There has only been one other time in history where the market has stretched further on the downside. That was at the bear market lows in 1932. The upside is that every time the market got anywhere near this stretched below the mean it was quickly followed by an extremely violent rally.

That being said I think we are very close to the bottom time wise. The daily trading cycle and weekly cycle are now in the timing band for that low. Smart money is starting to buy on sell offs. Dumb money is panicking. We have the ingredients in place for the mother of all counter trend rallies.

All that being said we probably need to put in at least two more down days before this is over.

Details in last nights update.