Wednesday, November 5, 2008

1-2-3 reversals

We now have several complete 1-2-3 reversals. I'm focusing on oil and gold. Specifically I want to take note of oil. The reason is that as oil collapsed it never really tested the 200 DMA. Seldom does an asset, especially one that's been in as powerful a bull market as oil, just slice through the 200 DMA and never look back.
You can see on the gold chart that recently gold shot back up to and above the 200 DMA. I think the odds are good that oil is also going to pop back up to the 200 DMA before rolling over again later this year or early next.

I've also included a long term chart of the CRB. Commodities are now bouncing off long term support. This looks like a logical level to launch a powerful counter trend rally.

Finally the dollar is also on the verge of completing a 1-2-3 reversal. I noted in a previous post that the dollar was likely topping and the weekly cycle bottom was due sometime between Nov. 7th and the beginning of Jan. As the dollar works into that bottom it should take a lot of pressure off all asset classes.