Wednesday, July 23, 2008

CRB trend is broken

In Jan. when Ben cut big to "save" the markets it turned on the afterburners in the commodity complex. At that point the trend in the CRB started to accelerate. Oil had already spiked more than 100% by then anyway giving us the makings of the next recession. The Fed just made things worse. Well that trend is probably over. Counter intuitively spiking inflation is ultimately deflationary. Oil along with the credit and housing debacles have forced the global economies into recession. Recessions are deflationary. Obviously in a deflationary environment demand drops so prices retreat.

It certainly looks like commodities are signaling deflation in the future. I wouldn't worry though the Fed will ultimately be true to tenet #1. No way Bernanke is going to let deflation set in as long as he has access to the printing presses. I fully expect Bernanke to use the same cure as Greenspan did during the 2000-2002 bear market. Print, Print, Print!