Thursday, July 31, 2008

CRB break

The CRB has now broken a long term trend line. It is oversold and probably due a temporary bounce but the odds are that the bounce will be of the dead cat variety. The spike in energy along with the ongoing problems in housing and the credit markets are most likely going to send the global economies into the worst recession in 25 years. That is going to cause demand destruction in the commodity complex.

Will it signal the end of the commodity bull? Not a chance! Once the recession ends, as they all do, demand will surge again and we'll go through another round of escalating commodity prices. I expect this whole cycle to be exacerbated by central banks who will turn to the printing presses to "halt" the recession.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this whole cycle of inflation and deflation cycle two to three times before enough production is brought on line to end the commodity bull and start the next great bull market in stocks.