Tuesday, April 8, 2008

QQQQ:Silver ratio

I'm responding to Tom's assertion that the Q's have been a better investment than silver. Since 02 silver has appreciated 4 times as much as than the NDX. Even if you pick the exact bottom in 02 silver has appreciated almost twice as much as the NDX. In 02 it took 10 oz. of silver to buy one share of the cubes. It now takes 2.5 oz. I don't know about anyone else but I think I'll keep holding my silver. Now you really don't want me to put up a chart starting in 2000 when the secular bear market started because it will be much worse. Likewise you don't want me to compare the Q's to oil or base metals as it will also be much worse. It's not what you know that hurts you. It's what you think you know that just ain't so.
I've added a long term chart starting at the end of the last commodity bull cycle. We can see that stocks clearly outperformed silver until 2000. At that point stocks became grossly overvalued and silver terribly undervalued. Now the trend has clearly changed in favor of silver. Does anyone see anything that would suggest that this trend has changed? Is silver grossly overvalued yet? I'll point out again that human emotions don't swing to the average. We always go to extremes. That's just how fear and greed work. It's never changed in all of recorded history as far as I know and I seriously doubt that it's changed now. As a matter of fact looking at the tech and real estate bubbles I would say it's operating as strong as ever. No this trend won't change until we've taken it to the bubble phase. That's still many years away yet.