Friday, April 25, 2008

Gold's monthly chart

Unless something drastic happens in the next week gold is going to complete a monthly swing high. Every other correction during Gold's bull market has seen one of these monthly swing highs. Also notice that gold has corrected back to the 12 month moving average on every correction. Depending on how long this correction lasts that could come in at anywhere from $790 to $850.

So is the bull market over? Doubtful. Once we finish this move and the commercials cover their shorts I will be looking to get back in at much lower prices for the next leg up. I don't know whether that will be in a couple days, a couple of months or next year. Will I sell my core position? What are you crazy? Where would I be if gold decides to end the correction tomorrow and I had no position?

At some point in this bull market there will likely be a down year. Maybe it will be this year I don't know. This is just how bull markets work. They make it as hard as possible to stay onboard.

I do think the COT report should get us back in pretty close to the bottom so I'll just bide my time until I get the green light.