Monday, October 1, 2007

COT short signals

I'm going to show you COT sell/short signals in the gold market for the duration of this secular bull. Take note here as this is important. The commercials are much better at spotting value than they are timing tops. I've got news for you it's pretty much the same in every futures contract including the S&P's. Spotting tops is virtually impossible and the commercial traders aren't really any better at it than you and me. When I get a short signal I'm very hesitant about shorting and if I do it is in very small amounts. It is much safer to just go to cash and wait for the next long signal. We've got a short signal in gold right now but as we can see the history hasn't been great for calling tops. Even if we do get a pullback it's very unlikely to amount to much or last very long. So I won't be shorting or selling any of my PM. I may take a little off the table on my PM stocks because there is some pretty strong odds of some kind of pullback this month but I would never think of selling any of my physical gold or silver which is where most of my capital is anyway.