Sunday, September 2, 2007
Sept. the weakest month?
Over the last 26 years Sept. has been up 12 times and down 14 with one year even. Not exactly great odds of Sept. being either up or down. The % gain for all up Sept. is roughly 33% while the % loss for all down Sept. is 58%. However without the 3 bear years (2000-2002) the % loss is 33%. The odds are probably about 50/50 for Sept. being a down month. However if you narrow the data a bit and look for periods where the market had an intermediate decline in the month or two prior to Sept. then the odds of a positive Sept. improve a bit. 8 to 5. Now if you factor in the historical returns seen for the months after the kind of breadth extremes we saw in Aug. then it would seem the odds are much better for a positive Sept. than a down one.