Thursday, September 13, 2007

Gold/Oil ratio

In the beginning of the commodity bull market gold outperformed oil. The Fed started cutting at the beginning of 01 and the gold bull market got underway. It quickly reached a peak of 1 oz. of gold buying about 15 barrels of oil. From there things turned in favor of oil for the next 3 1/2 years. In 05 one oz. of gold would buy only about 6 barrels of oil. Since Sept. of 05 though the advantage has swung back to gold. After correcting for the first half of the year I think gold is now ready to resume it's out performance. During the commodity run so far oil is up in the neighborhood of 700% while gold is only up a little less than 200%. It's about time gold makes up for lost ground. For gold to catch up to oil it will need to rise to $2000. I have no doubt that gold will do just that over time and probably much more. Silver would need to go to $32. However silver is the most undervalued commodity and at some point the market will recognize this and I expect silver to increase much more than 700%. I think 2000-3000% is probably more realistic for silver. Hence my constant harping on silver :)