Wednesday, February 24, 2010


I believe the secular gold bull is still intact. As long as I believe that to be a fact then I have to ask what's the point in selling losing positions and locking in a loss?

If I had sold my losers in April they would never have had a chance to become profitable. The same for July, Sept. and Oct.

The only difference between now and then is the time I think it's going to take for my positions to become profitable.

Since I think gold has now entered a D-wave I may not get the quick rebound on underwater positions that I got over the last year but that doesn't mean I need to throw out a winning hand. It just means these particular positions are going to need more time to work before they move into the green. I'm willing to give them all the time they need.

I'm not overlooking the fact that a D-wave is followed by an A-wave that should at least test the $1161 pivot. I'm also not overlooking the fact that the last three A-waves produced HUI gains of 18%, 37% and 116% gain in 1 month, 1 month and 3 1/2 months respectively.

As miners are still incrediably cheap we should see the HUI come close if not better the highs at the next A-wave top. Especially if oil continues to hold below $100. At the least they should test the 475 pivot that they were at during gold's last move back up to $1161.