Tuesday, December 8, 2009


The weekly volatility coil on the oil chart appears to be breaking downward this week back below the 200 week moving average.

The majority of the time the initial move out of a volatility coil ends up being a false move. The reversal when it comes tends to be more powerful and durable than the initial move.

In this case I'm guessing we get 2-4 weeks of oil moving sharply downward followed by a massive inflationary move higher next year.

It's that move that will again rock the global economy just like it did last year and probably signal the beginning of the end of this cyclical bull market.