Saturday, May 9, 2009

Bull markets...go up!

I see quite a few investors trying to find reasons for why gold will go up or go down, depending on whether they are bullish or bearish.

I've got news for you it's a waste of time. The reason gold is going up is because it's in a secular bull market and that's what bull markets do, they go up!

Here's the latest rational: "Gold is a safe haven and it rallies in times of uncertainty" The reverse of that is of course that gold will drop as long as the stock market is rallying.

Now think about that statement. It's got to be the most ridiculous rationalization I've ever heard.

Let me ask you this, did gold go down from 2002 till 07 when the stock market was in a cyclical bull market? It did not!

Did gold go up when the market was crashing in Sept. and Oct. last year and uncertainty was through the roof? No!

Did gold go down when the dollar was rallying from Dec. to March? Wrong again!

I guarantee no one even thinks twice about what the dollar or stock market is doing when they buy gold. They buy gold for one reason and one reason only. Because it is moving higher or they think it will move higher.

Last summer when tankers were setting in the gulf with no where to unload their oil do you think anyone was paying any attention to that at all? No they were not. They were buying oil for one reason, it was going up.

The only reason anyone needs for buying gold is that this is a secular bull market and secular bull markets don't end until the last buyer has bought. In the gold market that means an unbelievably huge parabolic spike.

We aren't even remotely close yet.